Barnier’s French government hangs by a thread as Le Pen’s ultimatum looms

PARIS — It’s deadline day for French Prime Minister Michel Barnier.
Hanging over him is an ultimatum delivered by far-right leader Marine Le Pen: If he doesn’t cave to her budget demands, she could topple his government within 48 hours.
So it’s shaping up to be a crucial few days for France, with the reverberations likely to be felt across Europe. The country is the second largest economy in the eurozone and is carrying a mountain of debt. Its government hasn’t been this fragile nor its parliament so fractured for a generation.
Monday will be a day of drama. Lawmakers are set to gather in the National Assembly to vote on next year’s social security budget. Barnier, who has only been prime minister since September after President Emmanuel Macron called a gratuitous election, desperately needs the budget to pass to avoid a crisis that will be as much political as financial.
The problem for Barnier is that his center-right government doesn’t hold a majority in the parliament, so he will need the tacit support of the far right. If he tries to circumvent a vote, meanwhile, the political opposition could cause his government to fall.
The aim of the budget is to regain control over France’s spiraling deficit, which is projected to hit 6.1 percent of the size of the economy this year. Barnier had initially planned €40 billion in spending cuts and €20 billion in tax hikes, but has already been forced to make some concessions on those numbers.
Aware of their kingmaker role, Le Pen and her National Rally party have put forward an ever-growing list of pre-Christmas demands they expect Barnier to meet in exchange for their cooperation. The party has listed a series of “red lines” — policies it says will automatically lead to a vote of no confidence if they are included in the budget.
The question is who will blink first.
Le Pen told the AFP news agency on Sunday that the government had “ended the discussion,” adding: “There’s a chance we’ll draw the consequences of this extremely closed-minded and sectarian behavior.”
Barnier has two options on the table to pass the social security budget — and both require the cooperation of the National Rally.
The first is a traditional parliamentary route. Under this scenario, the bill would be put to a vote; to win, Barnier’s minority government, which is supported by a narrow coalition of centrist and conservative lawmakers, would need at least the tacit support of National Rally MPs. It would probably scrape though even if Le Pen’s troops abstained — presumably after having squeezed enough concessions out of Barnier.
Le Pen has implicitly left that door open by setting a Monday deadline for budget tweaks.
The second option, which Barnier has said he is “likely” to use, involves skipping a vote altogether. The French constitution allows the government to do so, but the move allows opposition parties to file a motion of no confidence — which, if submitted, would likely be put to a vote on Wednesday.
If that motion passed the budget would also be rejected, and the government would automatically collapse.
The pan-left New Popular Front, which holds roughly a third of seats in the National Assembly, has already vowed to put forward a motion to topple the government. If the far right joins in, it’s all over for the Barnier administration.
If Barnier chooses the latter route, he can only hope Le Pen gets cold feet about plunging the country into financial chaos.
But the National Rally’s official position, for now, is that it won’t budge unless all its “red lines” are removed from the budget. “We still have issues [with the budget]… [Barnier] has until Monday,” Le Pen told Le Monde on Thursday.
Meanwhile, her wish list has expanded over the past few days. The National Rally is asking that the government scrap a tax hike on electricity, abandon a planned postponement to a yearly inflation adjustment for pensions, keep employer contribution exemptions on low wages, pledge not to delist certain drugs, “drastically cut” access to state-funded health care for undocumented immigrants, and “negotiate with Brussels a reduction in France’s contribution to the European Union budget.”
Barnier has started to give in, making a U-turn on his plans on electricity taxes and agreeing to keep employer contribution exemptions in place. He also attempted to seduce the far right in an interview with conservative daily Le Figaro with extra promises such as limiting the ability of individuals without documentation to access health care.
Barnier claims none of that was aimed at convincing Le Pen, but instead was a bid for consensus with all opposition parties.
Politics is also at play, with Le Pen wanting Barnier to lay the win at her feet. “I have a democratic issue with the insistence on saying that this is not a concession to the National Rally,” she said. “They want our votes, but not our faces associated to them.”
In an interview with Le Parisien published on Sunday, Budget Minister Laurent Saint-Martin seemingly shut the door on any last-minute concessions.
“There is no way to guarantee the restoration of state finances if we go further than we have already,” he said. “Compromise is not blackmail, there cannot be an ultimatum.”
In response, National Rally President Jordan Bardella took to X to accuse the government of being “stubborn” and “running the risk” of being toppled by “ending negotiations.”
The catch for Barnier? Even if he survives this week, he won’t be out of the woods. Later this month, if the social security bill passes, lawmakers will examine the overall state budget for next year, which will once again expose the PM to a vote of no confidence — and inevitably to another set of demands from the National Rally.